Online Class Notes (Mike)

Global growth is slowing, but not stopping yet. 

Since 1900 the global economy has fallen into recession, as defined by a year-on-year decline in GDP per person, about once a decade on average. In 2020 the world experienced the deepest downturn since the end of the second world war. Just two years on, is another recession on the way?

Worries are certainly mounting. The war in Ukraine has triggered higher food and energy prices, which have hammered households’ disposable incomes. Lockdowns in China are disrupting supply chains. And central banks are rapidly raising interest rates to tame inflation.

Fears about the state of the world economy have jolted financial markets. In the past month stockmarkets in rich countries have fallen by more than a tenth. Risky assets, including tech stocks and cryptocurrencies, have taken a nasty blow. Economists, meanwhile, are steadily downgrading their forecasts for global growth. To what extent are recession fears already materialising? A look at the data gives grounds for cautious optimism—for now, at least.

True, in many places people sound as though the recession is already here. Across the OECD, a club mostly of rich countries that accounts for more than 60% of global GDP, consumer confidence is now lower than it was when the coronavirus first struck. A gauge of American consumers’ sentiment constructed by the University of Michigan this month fell to its lowest level in a decade, according to a preliminary estimate. Respondents were gloomier about their own financial situations; fewer of them thought it a propitious time to buy durable goods, on account of high inflation. If consumers hold back from spending, the economy will slow.

Yet, so far, what people say and what people do seem to be different things. Global restaurant bookings on OpenTable, a reservations website, are still above the pre-pandemic norm. In America retail sales are still increasing, and hotel occupancy continues to improve. A high-frequency measure of Britons’ spending habits, constructed by the Office of National Statistics and the Bank of England, shows little sign that people are holding back from social activities, or from purchases that could be deferred.

Vocabulary

crave (v)
craving (n)
I have a strong craving for pizza.

in-person

flip (v)

stagnant (adj.) (of air or water) not moving,
stagnant air/room/economy

sluggish (adj.)
A sluggish economy
I am feeling quite sluggish today. I will not go out.
unpromising (adj.)

vibrant (adj.)
prosperous (adj.) moderately

CET-4: College English Test

moderate
1) (ability, amount, achievement) medium, neither good nor bad, mediocre
Even moderate amount use of this drug can cause death.
Cook the meat over a moderate heat. (文火)
2) showing neutral and non-extreme opinions, especially about politics
moderate policy/social reform
3) reasonable, restrained, appropriate
He is a moderate drinker.
We should drink moderately. 
I think a 5% increase in my salary is a moderate demand. 

mediocre (adj.)

temperament (n) 性情，气质
he has a romantic and sentimental temperament.

earnest (adj.) ≈ sincere (adj.)

gut feeling (n)
instinct (n) 本能

rote memorization (n) 死记硬背

vanity (n) 虚荣心

spiritual belief (n)
His/her spiritual belief is largely based on Eastern philosophy.

astrology (n) 占星术
astronomy (n) 天文学

implicit — explicit (adj.)

outspoken (adj.)
candid (adj.)

jot down (v) write down things quicks

get by with something (v) 凑合
In April, I had to get by with what the government gave me. 
He lives on government benefit and has to get by with 20 dollars a week.

an icy coffee
an iced coffee

they are indifferent with other people.
they are indifferent to other people.

powerful position people.
high-ranking officials/managers
people in powerful positions. = “big guys” 

I write all the new words into a notebook.
I write/jot down the new words on a notebook.